With every disaster comes change but also opportunity. Last weeks vote to exit the European Union (EU) by a majority of (misinformed and duped) United Kingdom (UK) citizens was no exception. It hit like an earthquake – sudden and devastating, reverberating with social and political upheaval, as well as unexpected chaos and uncertainty about the future. The decision brought down the British government. Prime Minister Cameron resigned and the British pound dropped significantly against the dollar immediately after votes were counted. The leadership of the two leading parties in Parliament was fractured. Scotland threatened to call for another referendum on Independence so as to remain in the EU, and Northern Ireland (with the only UK border with the EU) was left wondering whether it should join with the Republic of Ireland in order to remain in the EU. To make matters worse British citizens felt betrayed by their leaders who lied to them about the benefits of leaving the EU.
The road ahead for the UK will depend on various key milestones, which have yet to take shape, chief among these is Governance – the election of a new leader and a new cabinet with the vision and the diplomatic wherewithal to: 1) maintain the integrity of the UK, and; 2) negotiate a new agreement with the EU with whom the UK can build a successful post-Brexit partnership, thereby maintaining the financial integrity of both the UK and the EU to ensure the security of Western Europe. Next, the new UK government must move quickly to build a diplomatic team and a strategic plan to negotiate new trade and security agreements with the rest of the world, chief among these, the United States, Canada and Australia, and the rest of the ‘Commonwealth of Nations’ member states, that once formed the British Empire.
However, to a great extent the UK’s success in building its future trade deals will be highly dependent on the United States’ willingness to provide it with ‘preferred nation’ status. The next President of the United States will need to navigate a deft diplomatic fine line between making the UK whole again without jeopardizing its commitment to the economic integrity of the EU. What is at stake here is nothing less than the security of the free world as it moves to counter the challenges posed by totalitarianism, state-run terrorism and the rise of China as a dominant economic, political, and military power on the world stage.