Recently, Kristian Blickle of the New York Federal Reserve published an interesting study entitled, Pandemics Change Cities: Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism Germany, 1918-1933
This is the sort of study economists who depend on studies like to use to make economic projections. The major finding of the study is that influenza deaths from the 1918 Pandemic were correlated with the share of votes received by extremist (fascist) parties in 1932 and 1933 in Germany, thus contributing to the electoral victory of the Nationalist Socialist Party under Hitler. We have to remember, the Hitler of 1933 was not the Hitler of 1939.
Although the 1918 pandemic created lasting and severe financial hardship for the German people in the 1920s and 30s, my take is that WW I and the Great Depression had as much or more adverse impact on the the German economy; contributing to the acceptance of political right wing extremism in the interwar period. Fascist movements were already brewing in Europe and even in the United States, at the turn of the 20th Century, as it has been now at the turn of the 21st. The 1918 pandemic accelerated that trend, literally spewing gasoline on the fire. Will the 2020 Coronavirus pandemic has a similar effect?
By definition catastrophic events such as wars and natural disasters invariably cause long term human and economic damage and disruption of the impacted society. More importantly, extreme events result in extreme economic hardship and psychological and political reactions that greatly influence how people think and vote. This is consistent with the ‘pendular theory’ of human events. This theory states that societal attitudes across the liberal to conservative spectrum are cyclical and behave like a pendulum, moving from one extreme to the other. The greater the swing of the pendulum in one direction the greater the swing in the opposite direction. External forces calibrate the degree to which the pendulum swings.
The political environment in the United States in 2020 is polarized, not unlike 1930s Germany. The pendulum is moving but we don’t know in which direction it will swing the furthest. On the one hand we have the right wing Republican extremist movement and on the other the left wing democratic socialist movement. When the National Socialist Party came to power in Germany Hitler squashed the opposition communists using a variety of political strategies and machinations, not the least of which was the demonization of the German communist party and accusing their elements of torching the Reichstag, the German Parliament. With his enemies weakened in the eyes of the public Hitler was free to consolidate power over his party, eliminate dissent. He installed loyalists in key ministries of government. The communists and the Jews became the scapegoats for all the failures suffered by the German people up to that time.
The question before us in November 2020 will be similar to the one that confronted the German people in 1933. The Trump of 2020 is not the Trump of 2016. After 4 years we have gained insight on where he wants to take the nation. During his time in office Trump has taken over the Republican Party and has consolidated power over the institutions of government by installing loyalists to head them. ‘Trumpism’ more and more is resembling an authoritarian ‘quasi-fascist’ political movement. He is blaming China for his mismanagement of the pandemic in the United States and for the resulting downturn in the economy. The only element that is missing for Trump to win another in November is the political equivalent of a Reichstag fire.
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